PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The FedEx St. Jude Championship, held annually in Memphis, Tennessee, serves as the opening event of the PGA Tour's three-tournament playoff series. The 2026 edition will determine which players advance to the subsequent BMW Championship, making it a critical juncture in the season's final stretch. The tournament typically attracts the Tour's top-ranked players competing for both playoff positioning and a substantial purse.

The 6% implied probability on this particular listed player reflects either a mid-tier ranking within the field or meaningful uncertainty about their form heading into August 2026. Historical data from recent St. Jude Championships shows that favourites rarely exceed 12–15% individual win probability given the strength of the field, whilst players ranked outside the top 20 rarely command more than 4–5% odds. This contract's pricing sits between those benchmarks, suggesting the market perceives the player as a fringe contender rather than an outsider. Comparable major championship prediction markets typically show tighter clustering between sportsbook moneylines and prediction-market probabilities than exists here, indicating potential divergence worth monitoring.

Traders should track the player's performance in the three months preceding the tournament, particularly results from June and July 2026 events that serve as final form indicators. Injury announcements, official PGA Tour standings updates, and field confirmation closer to the tournament date will all influence repricing. Recent precedent from 2024–2025 playoff seasons shows that late-season form shifts of 10–15 positions in world rankings can shift individual win probabilities by 2–3 percentage points within these markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.