PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

Scottie Scheffler defends the Claret Jug he captured at Royal Birkdale in 2025, with bookmakers lining him as the clear favourite for the 2026 Open Championship. The 11% crowd-implied probability on this contract sits slightly below the 12% win probability reflected across major sportsbooks like BetVictor and FanDuel, where Scheffler holds odds of 4/1 to +500 [1][5]. This modest divergence suggests prediction-market traders are pricing in a marginally higher risk of an upset compared to traditional bookmakers, who remain more confident in the world number one’s dominance.

Historically, Open winners at Royal Birkdale have often been players with strong links experience, yet Scheffler’s 2025 victory broke that pattern, proving modern power golf can triumph on British soil. Comparable cases include McIlroy’s 2014 win at Royal Liverpool, where second-favourite status translated into victory despite a volatile field [5]. With McIlroy now holding odds of 13/2 to +800 across platforms, the market is pricing a tight two-horse race, though no other contender currently exceeds 5% implied probability, reinforcing the Scheffler–McIlroy duopoly [1][2].

Traders should monitor Scheffler’s schedule ahead of the tournament, particularly his participation in the Scottish Open as a form indicator, and any injury updates from the PGA Tour. Tom Kim’s recent Scottish Open win has briefly boosted his profile, though he remains a longshot at +4500 [2]. The settlement window closes on 19 July 2026, so any withdrawal or elimination under official PGA Tour rules will trigger an immediate “No” resolution for listed players [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.