Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 70% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Match O/U 40.5 | 57% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 3 Winner | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 Winner | 49% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 20% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 4% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: grigor dimitrov vs matteo berrettini. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Grigor Dimitrov and Matteo Berrettini in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini on Best Prediction Markets
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