Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Game Spread +/-0.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic. This market refers to the tennis match between Kamil Majchrzak and Hamad Medjedovic in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kamil Majc…
Methodology
We track US Open ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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