Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 Winner | 55% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Game Spread +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 Winner | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 3 Winner | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech | 45% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 14% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 68% YES probability for US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech. This market refers to the tennis match between Jaume Munar and Arthur Rinderknech in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Muna…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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