Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado | 0% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to san marino: daniel rincon vs juan carlos prado. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Rincon and Juan Carlos Prado in the San Marino, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Rincon' …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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