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US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe

Five-platform snapshot of "US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 8.5 100% US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 9.5 100% US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 10.5 100% Volume: $298K Liquidity: $320K Closes: 9 Sept 2026
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US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 9.5100%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 10.5100%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 O/U 9.5100%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 O/U 8.590%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Game Spread +/-4.581%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-2.564%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.557%
Completed Match50%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 36.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 38.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Total Sets: O/U 4.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 Winner50%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 40.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 Winner36%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Total Sets: O/U 3.522%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe7%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 Winner0%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 Winner0%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.50%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-2.50%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 9.50%
US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 10.50%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open atp: rei sakamoto vs frances tiafoe stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Rei Sakamoto and Frances Tiafoe in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resol…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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Related Topics

Tennis Prediction Markets