Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 66% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 36.5 | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier | 57% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 Winner | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 Winner | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 38.5 | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Game Spread +/-1.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 40.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 43% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 21% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open atp: zachary svajda vs daniel altmaier stands at 68% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Zachary Svajda and Daniel Altmaier in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
We track US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier on Best Prediction Markets
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