Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo | 83% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 78% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner | 72% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner | 70% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 Winner | 69% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 36.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 38.5 | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Game Spread +/-6.5 | 39% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 40.5 | 39% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 23% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Alejandro Tabilo in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexand…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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