Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| O/U 36.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| Texas O/U 18.5 | 75% |
| Ohio State O/U 17.5 | 75% |
| Ohio State O/U 18.5 | 74% |
| O/U 42.5 | 73% |
| Texas O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| Texas O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| 2H Moneyline | 67% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 67% |
| Ohio State O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| O/U 44.5 | 66% |
| Texas O/U 21.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| Ohio State O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| Texas O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| O/U 47.5 | 58% |
| Ohio State O/U 2.5 | 57% |
| Bo Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Ohio State O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Spread: Texas (-1.5) | 52% |
| Devin McCuin: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Isaiah West: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Michael Masunas: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Texas 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chris Henry Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brandon Inniss: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Derrek Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Julian Sayin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Berkhalter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Simon: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nate Roberts: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Welcing: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Parker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Townsend: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brock Boyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Ohio State O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Texas 1H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Texas O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Ohio State vs. Texas | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| Ohio State O/U 26.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| Texas O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 54.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Ohio State O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Texas O/U 28.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 56.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Ohio State O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Ohio State O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Texas O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Jeremiah Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 29% |
| O/U 58.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Ohio State O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 60.5 | 26% |
| Texas O/U 31.5 | 26% |
| Hollywood Smothers: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Arch Manning: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Ryan Wingo: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Cam Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| Raleek Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| O/U 64.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 17% |
| O/U 66.5 | 16% |
| Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| Legend Bey: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Emmett Mosley V: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Spread -12.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| Spread -12.5 | 12% |
| Spread -34.5 | 10% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Spread -31.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Spread -24.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -27.5 | 4% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, ohio state vs. texas stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Ohio State and Texas, scheduled for September 12 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ohio State" if Ohio State win the game. Th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $139K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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