Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 40.5 | 100% |
| O/U 42.5 | 100% |
| O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| O/U 46.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Texas O/U 38.5 | 91% |
| Texas O/U 41.5 | 91% |
| O/U 48.5 | 90% |
| O/U 60.5 | 88% |
| Spread -10.5 | 86% |
| O/U 59.5 | 84% |
| O/U 62.5 | 82% |
| Spread: Texas (-30.5) | 80% |
| Spread -21.5 | 67% |
| Spread -13.5 | 66% |
| Spread -16.5 | 65% |
| Spread -17.5 | 62% |
| O/U 58.5 | 59% |
| O/U 66.5 | 59% |
| Spread -24.5 | 57% |
| Spread -27.5 | 57% |
| Spread -20.5 | 56% |
| O/U 54.5 | 55% |
| O/U 72.5 | 52% |
| Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| Texas O/U 44.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Raleek Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Arch Manning: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hollywood Smothers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ryan Wingo: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cam Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Emmett Mosley V: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brad Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Masunas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Beau Sparks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Torrance Burgess Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylen Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Dawn Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Berkhalter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaliq Lockett: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| LaKeyleon Graves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zechariah Sample: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Blake Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -29.5 | 48% |
| O/U 78.5 | 48% |
| Spread -31.5 | 47% |
| Spread -34.5 | 44% |
| Texas State vs. Texas | 1% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of texas state vs. texas. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If Texas State wins, the market will resolve to "Texas State". If Texas wins, the market will resolve…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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