Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 14% |
| O/U 0.5 | 12% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 2% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score | 1% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Qingdao Xihaian and Chongqing Tonglianglong are scheduled to meet in the Chinese Super League on 14 August 2026, with the fixture kicking off at 08:00 ET. The prediction market currently prices the likelihood of additional markets being offered for this match at just 1%, suggesting traders view the probability of supplementary betting options materialising as negligible.
Historically, Chinese Super League fixtures attract secondary market creation only when clubs or broadcasters signal explicit demand for expanded wagering options, or when a match carries unusual competitive significance. Tier-two clubs competing in mid-season fixtures rarely trigger the threshold needed for sportsbooks to justify the operational cost of developing ancillary markets. Comparable August fixtures between lower-profile sides in prior seasons have settled with minimal market proliferation beyond standard match outcomes and goal-line betting.
The settlement window closes on 14 August at 12:00 UTC, leaving minimal time for market operators to respond to late-breaking developments. Traders should monitor whether either club announces squad changes, injury updates, or broadcast partnerships in the week preceding the fixture—factors that occasionally prompt bookmakers to expand their offering. Equally, confirmation of televised coverage on major platforms could shift operator incentives. As of recent reporting, neither Qingdao nor Chongqing has signalled expectations of expanded market availability for this particular match, reinforcing the current low-probability assessment.
Methodology
This page reviews Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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