The Hundred: Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds

Platform comparison

Market context

The men's Hundred match between Birmingham Phoenix and Sunrisers Leeds is live, and the contract is effectively pricing in a Sunrisers win after the visitors posted 169 for 7 and held Phoenix to a much lower chase. On the market side, the crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** for Phoenix looks materially below both the live sportsbook picture and the on-field scoreboard state, while Sunrisers are trading at about **99%** on the exchange-style market, implying almost complete alignment between the prediction market and the in-play cricket view.[2][14][16]

The historical frame also points one way. Earlier on the same day, Sunrisers Leeds beat Phoenix’s women by nine wickets, with Phoebe Litchfield’s 71 off 33 balls driving a routine chase at Edgbaston, and the BBC noted that result knocked Phoenix out of contention.[1][3][4] In the men’s match, ESPN reported Sunrisers winning by 45 runs, with Phoenix dismissed for 124 for 8, which is exactly the sort of recent head-to-head and same-venue form that tends to compress prices once a side falls well behind the required rate.[2][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are no longer team news so much as confirmation of completion: any interruption, revised target or DLS adjustment would matter only if the innings were still in play, while a completed result would settle on the official winner under the competition’s ordinary-win rules, including any applicable on-field tiebreak.[2][5] The live broadcast and score services show the match at Edgbaston with Sunrisers already controlling the game, so the only meaningful divergence to watch is whether any late settlement delay appears between the scoreboard and the market feed.[10][14][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.