The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix

Platform comparison

Market context

Manchester Super Giants have already beaten Birmingham Phoenix by 87 runs in this match, so a 100% YES crowd price is effectively aligned with the published result rather than a live pre-match view. ESPNcricinfo records Manchester Super Giants 187 for 7 and Birmingham Phoenix 100 all out, with Manchester declared winners by 87 runs, which also matches BBC Sport’s report of a “thump” for Phoenix.[2][1]

That makes the contract a useful reminder that this market should be read as a settled-result instrument, not a forecasting one. Pre-match analysis from Statz had described the fixture as close to even, with Birmingham given a narrow edge in some projections and indicative odds clustered around near-pick’em pricing, so the eventual outcome represents a meaningful beat relative to that consensus rather than a marginal home-favourite result.[3] In comparable Hundred fixtures, short-format variance, powerplay batting and one strong individual innings can move the match outcome decisively, which is exactly what happened here with Jos Buttler’s 90.[1][2]

For traders, the only catalysts that mattered were the official team sheets, the toss, weather and any match interruptions, because those were the dependencies that could have shifted the line before the ball was bowled. Once ESPNcricinfo published the completed scorecard and result, the resolution path was straightforward under the market rules, including any allowance for on-field decisions such as DLS or a tie-break, though none were needed in this case.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.