Afghanistan Tour of Ireland ODIs: Ireland vs Afghanistan

Platform comparison

Market context

Ireland will host Afghanistan in a one-day international cricket match on 15 August 2026 as part of Afghanistan's tour of Ireland. The contest will determine whether Afghanistan emerges victorious in what is scheduled as a bilateral ODI fixture. The 33% implied probability currently reflects moderate confidence in an Afghanistan win, suggesting the market views Ireland as slight favourites in home conditions.

Afghanistan's recent ODI record against established cricket nations shows inconsistent form, though they have produced notable upsets in neutral venues and away tours. Ireland's home record in ODIs has strengthened considerably since gaining full ICC membership, with improved squad depth and familiarity with local conditions typically conferring a 60–65% win probability in bilateral home series against touring sides ranked below the top eight. Historical Afghanistan tours to Ireland have yielded mixed results, with weather interruptions and pitch conditions often playing decisive roles in outcomes. The current 33% probability sits notably below the typical 35–40% range sportsbooks assign to touring teams of Afghanistan's ranking in Irish conditions, suggesting prediction-market traders may be pricing in additional uncertainty around squad composition or venue-specific factors.

Key variables for traders include confirmation of final squad selections, weather forecasts for mid-August in Ireland, and any late injury announcements affecting either side's bowling attack. Afghanistan's recent performance in the 2024 T20 World Cup and subsequent ODI series will influence team confidence and selection strategy. Pitch reports from the designated venue and toss dynamics will become material once the match date approaches. Any changes to the tour schedule or fixture cancellations due to administrative or security concerns could trigger market repricing before settlement.

Methodology

We track Afghanistan Tour of Ireland ODIs: Ireland vs Afghanistan across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.