Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AC Horsens 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 99% |
| Odense BK O/U 0.5 | 98% |
| AC Horsens O/U 0.5 | 98% |
| O/U 2.5 | 79% |
| Odense BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Odense BK O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Odense BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Odense BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| AC Horsens 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Odense BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| AC Horsens 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| AC Horsens 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| AC Horsens O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Odense BK O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Odense BK (-1.5) | 18% |
| AC Horsens O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Odense BK (-2.5) | 5% |
| AC Horsens (-1.5) | 4% |
| AC Horsens (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Odense BK will host AC Horsens in the Denmark Superliga on 16 August 2026. The market in question settles on whether additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture, with the prediction-market crowd currently pricing the probability at 18% YES. This is a meta-market on liquidity provision rather than match outcome, making it sensitive to sportsbook operational decisions and platform competition rather than team form.
Historical precedent suggests that Superliga fixtures between mid-table sides attract selective market coverage. Odense and Horsens have both occupied positions outside the top three in recent seasons, which typically correlates with reduced derivative-market depth compared to fixtures involving Copenhagen, Midtjylland, or Brøndby. However, the 8:00 AM ET kickoff time—early by North American standards—may further suppress sportsbook appetite for granular markets. Cross-platform comparison reveals that major European operators (Betfair, Pinnacle) have historically offered extended markets for Superliga matches only when aggregate handle forecasts exceed threshold levels; the current 18% probability reflects scepticism about whether this fixture meets that bar.
Traders should monitor sportsbook announcements in the week preceding the match, particularly from platforms with Danish market exposure. Fixture congestion in mid-August, team injury bulletins, and any late schedule changes could influence whether operators commit resources to additional markets. Recent Superliga coverage patterns suggest that matches scheduled outside prime European windows rarely trigger full market suites unless one club carries significant retail interest.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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