England vs. Argentina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

England and Argentina will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-final on 15 July, with the market pricing a specific exact score at 11% implied probability. This fixture marks the sixth World Cup encounter between the nations, where England historically dominate with three wins against Argentina’s single victory and one draw across five prior matches[3][4]. In official matches overall, England hold a six-to-two win advantage, though Argentina secured a penalty-shootout victory in a 1986 draw that counts as a win for them in some records[2]. The 11% crowd-implied probability for this exact score sits notably below typical sportsbook lines for narrow outcomes in semi-finals, which often range between 15–20% for specific 1–0 or 2–1 results, suggesting a divergence between prediction-market caution and bookmaker optimism on tight margins.

Traders should monitor injury updates for Harry Kane and Erling Haaland, who are both expected to feature after England’s quarter-final against Norway on 11 July, where Opta’s supercomputer assigned England a 50.4% regulation win probability[1]. Argentina’s squad status remains less clear, with no recent public confirmation on Lionel Messi’s fitness ahead of the semi-final, despite his involvement in the Switzerland quarter-final earlier in the week[9]. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 15 July, covering only the 90-minute result plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any postponement will keep the market open until completion, while cancellation with no replay would resolve to “Any Other Score.”

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.