Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets reflects the mathematical improbability of forecasting one specific scoreline among dozens of plausible outcomes in a single match, rather than either team's competitive standing.

Historical precedent shows exact-score markets typically distribute probability across 15–25 realistic outcomes depending on team strength disparity. Haiti, ranked 84th globally, and Scotland, ranked 37th, represent a significant quality gap. In comparable World Cup fixtures between teams of similar relative strength, the favourite wins roughly 60–70% of the time, with draws accounting for 20–30%. Exact-score markets on such matchups rarely exceed 8–12% probability on any single result; the current 0% reflects the market's fragmentation across many possible scorelines rather than consensus that a particular score is impossible.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations as June approaches, particularly Scotland's defensive availability given their reliance on established centre-backs. Fixture scheduling changes—though unlikely at this stage—would trigger market reopening. Recent World Cup qualification performance offers limited predictive value; group-stage dynamics often diverge sharply from qualifying tournaments. Sportsbooks currently price Scotland as heavy favourites in match-winner markets, typically around 1.40–1.50 odds, which anchors expectations toward Scottish victory outcomes but does not concentrate probability on any single scoreline.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.