Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 26% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, norway vs. england - player props stands at 92% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Norway vs. England - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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