Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty decisions. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting precise match outcomes across thousands of possible scorelines, with any unmatched result defaulting to "Any Other Score."

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets on group-stage fixtures typically distribute probability across 15–25 plausible outcomes, with 1–1 and 1–0 results capturing the largest shares. Sweden reached the 2018 World Cup quarter-finals and qualified for Euro 2024, whilst Tunisia has appeared in three World Cups but has not advanced from the group stage since 1978. Head-to-head records and recent form matter less in these markets than the sheer combinatorial spread: even heavily favoured scorelines rarely exceed 8–12% implied probability on major sportsbooks.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly any late withdrawals affecting either team's attacking or defensive depth. Fixture scheduling can also shift group-stage kick-off times if broadcast arrangements change. Current sportsbook lines on match outcomes (win/draw/loss) will provide the most reliable anchor for inferring which exact scores hold genuine edge; divergence between those conventional odds and exact-score pricing often signals where market consensus has mispriced individual results. The settlement window closes 15 June at 02:00 UTC, allowing roughly 24 hours post-match for official confirmation.

Methodology

We track Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.