Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye meet Paraguay in a World Cup group-stage match that is already live on the market, and the exact-score contract is pricing a relatively low hit rate at **8%** for the currently implied yes outcome. That sits below the simplest one-match baseline for a single listed scoreline in a low-scoring football game, but it is not out of line with sportsbook pricing that still has Türkiye only a modest favourite: ESPN’s live odds show Türkiye at **+125** on the moneyline, Paraguay at **+285**, and the draw at **+220**, while FOX Sports has Türkiye at **+103**, Paraguay at **+279**, and the draw at **+245**.[1][2]

For context, exact-score markets are normally compressed by the number of plausible outcomes, especially when the total-goals line is around **2.5**. FOX’s over/under is **2.5** with the under favoured at **-133**, and ESPN also lists **under 2.5** as the stronger side, which supports a market view centred on 1-0, 1-1, or 2-0 type results rather than a wide-open scoreline.[1][2] Historical head-to-head data are thin enough that they do not anchor this contract well; the more relevant framing is that both teams arrived on zero points after opening group play, which increases the incentive to pursue a result but does not by itself make a specific score materially more predictable.[1][4]

The main catalysts for traders are lineup news, late injury updates, and any change in tournament context before kickoff, because these can move both the exact-score distribution and the match total. FIFA lists the match at 03:00, and the contract remains live through regulation plus stoppage time, so any postponement or scheduling change would matter directly to settlement timing.[6] In cross-platform terms, the sharpest comparison point is the gap between the market’s 8% exact-score probability and the broadly similar but slightly higher or lower win pricing across ESPN and FOX, which suggests consensus on a competitive, modest-scoring game rather than a dominant one-sided result.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.