United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Paraguay will meet in a group-stage fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June, with kickoff scheduled for 9:00 PM ET. This exact-score market resolves on the 90-minute result only, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting specific scorelines in international football; even heavily favoured teams rarely settle at single exact scores with meaningful frequency across large sample sizes.

Historical precedent suggests caution in reading extreme probabilities on exact-score markets. In the 2022 World Cup group stage, matches involving strong sides produced varied outcomes—Argentina defeated Saudi Arabia 1–0 despite being heavy favourites, whilst Mexico drew 0–0 with Poland. The USA's own recent tournament record shows inconsistency: they lost 3–1 to the Netherlands in 2022 but defeated Iran 2–0 in the same competition. Paraguay qualified for 2026 as a lower-ranked opponent (currently ranked 68th by FIFA), making prediction of the precise margin particularly uncertain.

Traders should monitor team selection announcements and injury reports closer to the fixture date, particularly regarding key US attacking players and Paraguay's defensive setup. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may also shift based on FIFA's final tournament bracket decisions. Comparative odds across major sportsbooks typically reflect similar uncertainty on exact scores, with most individual scorelines priced between 8–15% implied probability. The divergence between this market's 0% reading and conventional sportsbook pricing warrants examination of whether the crowd assessment reflects genuine predictive insight or reflects the low liquidity often seen in exact-score markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.