Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Empoli FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Empoli FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Empoli FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Pisa SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Empoli FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Pisa SC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Pisa SC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Empoli FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Empoli FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Pisa SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Empoli FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Empoli FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Pisa SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Pisa SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Empoli FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Pisa and Empoli will meet in the Coppa Italia on 17 August at 12:00 PM ET, with this market tracking whether additional betting markets or settlement options will be offered for the fixture. The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently expect no supplementary markets to materialise, though this reflects the early stage of the tournament calendar rather than certainty about broadcast or operator coverage decisions.
Coppa Italia early-round matches historically receive variable market depth across European sportsbooks. Tier-one operators typically offer standard match outcomes and basic accumulators, whilst secondary markets—such as exact scorelines, player performance props, or live-betting enhancements—depend on anticipated audience size and operator strategy. Pisa's recent promotion to Serie A and Empoli's established top-flight status may influence whether platforms treat this as a marquee fixture warranting expanded offerings. Previous seasons show that Coppa Italia matches involving promoted sides or regional derbies often trigger broader market availability than lower-profile encounters.
The settlement window closes on match day itself, meaning traders must account for operator announcements typically made 48–72 hours before kick-off. Italian domestic media outlets and betting-industry publications generally report market launches for Coppa Italia fixtures by mid-week. Fixture scheduling changes, injury disclosures affecting squad depth, or unexpected broadcaster interest could shift operator appetite for additional markets. Current sportsbook lineups from major European operators should be monitored through mid-August to detect any divergence from the 0% baseline, particularly if either club's form or injury status triggers heightened retail interest.
Methodology
We track Pisa SC vs. Empoli FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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