FC Anyang vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC

Platform comparison

Market context

FC Anyang play Daejeon Hana Citizen in a K-League fixture whose crowd price of **4% YES** implies a very low chance of the market paying out, so the contract is trading well below what a normal home-win or draw-heavy football price would suggest. That looks more extreme than the available match history: across 36 meetings, Daejeon have 13 wins, Anyang nine, and 14 draws, with the teams drawing 1-1 in March 2026 and Anyang winning 3-2 in August 2025[15][18]. Recent preview data also points to a tighter contest than the market implies, with Anyang coming off a 3-1 defeat at Ulsan and Daejeon following a 2-0 win over Gwangju[16].

Comparable cases suggest this market should be read as a probability on a very specific match outcome rather than simple team strength. Head-to-head records and recent score patterns show frequent low-margin games: BTTS has landed in 8 of the last 9 meetings on one data feed, while other aggregators show a split of draws and one-goal results across the last five to ten games[1][9][17]. That profile is more consistent with a middling double-chance or draw-type expectation than with a 4% tail event, so the main divergence here is between the crowd-implied price and the broader consensus in preview models and H2H data[9][16][18].

The main catalysts for late movement are team news, confirmed line-ups, and any late injury or suspension updates, because a single starting striker or goalkeeper change can move short-football prices sharply. Daejeon’s recent form line is stronger on some feeds, including a 2-0 win in their previous outing, but their away results and scoring rate have been mixed, which leaves this contract sensitive to final selection rather than season-long averages alone[7][16]. With the match settling at 11:00 UTC on 8 August, traders will be watching pre-kickoff line-ups and any revised market probabilities as the most direct cross-platform signal against the 4% crowd price[14][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.