Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) | 85% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 71% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 66% |
| Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) | 61% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 54% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5? | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 47% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 42% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 38% |
| Game 4 Winner | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 36% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 35% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 26% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 26% |
| Game 2 Winner | 17% |
| Game 3 Winner | 17% |
| Game 1 Winner | 16% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 13% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 11% |
| Match Winner | 7% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 6% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 5% |
Market context
Market consensus: 85% chance of lol: team secret whales vs top esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Secret Whales and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 11:0…
Methodology
We track LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-S… on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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