Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox are set to face off in an MLB game on 24 June at 2:10PM ET, with the contest determining which team claims victory. The prediction market currently shows a 100% implied probability favouring the Guardians, a figure that starkly diverges from traditional sportsbooks, which list the White Sox as +1.5 underdogs and the Guardians at -135 moneyline, suggesting a much more competitive matchup than the prediction market implies.

Historically, 100% implied probabilities in single-game sports contracts rarely materialise unless a team is significantly injured or the game is postponed; comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that such extreme odds often correct within hours as new information emerges, particularly when recent head-to-head results, like the White Sox’s 2-1 win over the Guardians on 23 June, contradict the prevailing narrative. Traders should monitor official injury reports and starting pitcher announcements before the game, as any late changes could drastically alter the outcome, with recent coverage from ESPN highlighting the Guardians’ 41-39 season record against the White Sox’s 41-37 standing as key context for this divergence.

The catalyst for this market’s resolution hinges on the final score of the 24 June game, with the settlement window ending on 1 July 2026; if the game is postponed, the market remains open until completion, but a cancellation or tie would resolve 50-50. Analyst consensus from Covers.com notes the White Sox’s superior offensive output (4.63 runs per game) compared to the Guardians (3.95), suggesting the 100% probability may be an overreaction to a single recent result rather than a true reflection of team strength.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.