D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

D.C. United and New England Revolution met in an MLS fixture scheduled for 19 August 2026, with the contract’s settlement window ending just after kick-off at 23:30Z. The market’s 2% YES price is far below the broader betting range, where sportsbook moneylines clustered much closer to a home coin-flip or modest D.C. United edge: prices around D.C. United +105 to +155, New England +165 to +205, and the draw near +240 to +257 suggest a live-match outcome well inside normal variance rather than a near-impossible event[1][2][10][11].

That gap matters because comparable pricing in the market data points to a far more balanced contest than the contract implies. Vig-free bookmaker estimates put D.C. United around 43.0% to win, New England 30.3%, and the draw 26.8%, while prediction-market-style listings seen in comparison pages sat in the high-30s for D.C. United and mid-30s for New England, not remotely near 2%[8][11]. Historical read-through is straightforward: in MLS, home sides in this band of odds can and do lose, but a single-digit YES price usually signals a major informational edge, a timing issue, or a contract definition that is narrower than the ordinary match winner market[4][9].

The main catalysts are lineup confirmations, late injury news, and any schedule compression that affects rotation, because those are the factors most likely to move a tight MLS moneyline before settlement. Recent previews also leaned towards a total of 2.5 goals, with books split between over and under prices, so a change in attacking availability or goalkeeper selection would matter more than broad form narratives[3][4][9][10]. If the contract tracks a plain D.C. United win, the current crowd-implied probability looks materially out of line with both sportsbook consensus and analyst pricing[1][2][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.