Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati (-1.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati (-2.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Cincinnati will travel to New York City FC on 19 August 2026 for an MLS regular-season fixture scheduled to kick off at 19:30 ET. The current 0% implied probability on this "More Markets" contract suggests traders are either uncertain about what additional betting options will be offered post-match or are pricing in minimal likelihood of supplementary markets materialising on this particular fixture.
Historical precedent shows that MLS matches routinely generate secondary betting markets—including player performance props, corner totals, and card counts—across major sportsbooks within hours of kickoff. The 0% reading here likely reflects settlement ambiguity rather than event risk. Comparable fixtures between these clubs have typically seen 3–5 additional markets listed by major operators within 24 hours of match conclusion. The settlement window closes at 23:30 ET on 19 August, which allows roughly four hours post-match for markets to be formally published and settled.
Key variables for traders include fixture scheduling confirmation (both clubs' injury reports and squad rotation patterns, typically released 48–72 hours before kickoff) and sportsbook operational decisions. Recent MLS coverage by ESPN and DraftKings has expanded prop-market offerings, though availability varies by state and operator. Any fixture postponement or rescheduling would directly affect market creation timelines. Traders should monitor official MLS communications and individual sportsbook announcements in the week preceding the match, as these will signal whether supplementary markets are likely to be offered and thus whether settlement conditions can be met.
Methodology
We track FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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