Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United finished 3-2 in their MLS meeting on 1 August 2026, which is the key real-world anchor for this market’s settlement question.[1] That result matters because the crowd-implied probability is 0% YES, while comparable match data suggest this fixture is rarely one-sided: the last five league meetings before this game produced scores of 0-1, 3-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-2, and longer-run head-to-head records are close enough that neither club has a clear structural edge.[1][4][16] Analyst-style stats also point to a fairly balanced matchup, with one recent comparison putting Philadelphia at 1.322 goals scored per game and Atlanta at 1.017, while both sides were conceding around 1.83 goals per game, a profile that is more consistent with volatile totals than a near-certain no-result contract.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts were team-sheet news, late injury handling and any last-minute rotation, because MLS teams often manage minutes tightly around congested schedules and travel.[2][15] The strongest live dependency is simple: whether the listed fixture reaches the specific “more markets” condition before the settlement window closes at 23:30 UTC on 1 August, especially if the contract is tied to a derivative event such as an over/under, both teams to score, or another in-game line rather than the match winner itself.[1][3] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-facing statistical pages did not imply anything close to a 0% outcome, and the closest public consensus from head-to-head and form data was for a competitive game with meaningful goal risk, not a dead market.[2][4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.