Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5) | 0% |
| St. Louis City SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| St. Louis City SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
San Jose Earthquakes will host St. Louis City SC in Major League Soccer on 15 August at 10:30 PM ET, with settlement contingent on additional markets being offered for the fixture by 16 August at 02:30 UTC. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that no supplementary betting options will materialise for this regular-season encounter.
MLS fixture liquidity on prediction markets has historically tracked sportsbook availability with a lag of 24–48 hours before match day. Standard markets (match result, total goals, player props) typically launch 5–7 days prior; secondary markets (corner counts, card totals, specific goal scorers) arrive later and inconsistently. The zero probability here suggests traders are pricing in either sparse secondary-market appetite for a mid-table fixture or operational constraints from the platform's settlement partners. Comparable August MLS matches show that additional markets do eventually surface for most televised games, though coverage remains uneven across venues and matchups.
Key variables include whether St. Louis City or San Jose announce significant injury news in the 48 hours before kick-off—such developments typically trigger demand for expanded betting options. Television scheduling confirmation and any last-minute venue changes would also influence whether sportsbooks expand their offering. Current MLS standings and playoff implications for both clubs remain secondary drivers; the primary catalyst is simply whether commercial demand justifies the operational cost of listing supplementary markets. Traders should monitor official MLS communications and sportsbook line releases from 13 August onwards for signals of market expansion.
Methodology
This page reviews San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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