Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 15.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 71% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Texans 2H O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| Bills 2H O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Texans 1H O/U 8.5 | 64% |
| Bills 1H O/U 8.5 | 64% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| O/U 40.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| O/U 42.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 43.5 | 55% |
| Bills O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| O/U 44.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Bills vs. Texans | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills vs. Texans: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 46.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 45% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Bills O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| Texans O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| O/U 47.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 48.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 50.5 | 33% |
| Texans O/U 28.5 | 33% |
| Bills O/U 28.5 | 32% |
| O/U 52.5 | 28% |
| O/U 54.5 | 22% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| O/U 58.5 | 17% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 93% probability to bills vs. texans. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans". If the game is postponed, thi…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $90K.
Methodology
This page reviews Bills vs. Texans across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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