Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kristiansund BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kristiansund BK O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Molde FK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kristiansund BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kristiansund BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Molde FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kristiansund BK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Molde FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| Molde FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Molde FK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Molde FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Molde FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Molde FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Molde FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Kristiansund BK host Molde FK in the Eliteserien, with kick-off set for 17:15 UTC at Kristiansund Stadion.[1][2] The prediction market’s **0% YES** implies no meaningful upside for the “more markets” contract at the close of the settlement window, yet that sits against a live football fixture that most external models still treat as broadly live and state-dependent rather than predetermined.[3][7]
Historical and model-based comparisons point to a modest Molde lean, not certainty. Recent preview models give Molde roughly **42% to 54%** to win, with draw chances around **25% to 26%**, while sportsbook-style prices cited by preview sites show Molde around **1.67** away and Kristiansund about **4.5** at home, suggesting the away side is favoured but far from a lock.[3][9][12] Head-to-head records also lean Molde over the longer run, although Kristiansund have taken wins in the rivalry and the match-up has produced enough variance to keep totals and alternative markets live.[6][11][17]
Traders should watch the confirmed line-ups, late injury news and any market-moving changes to the expected game state, because those are the main catalysts that can shift ancillary props such as goals, cards and corners before settlement.[1] The currently projected XIs still leave room for late changes, and pre-match previews are already flagging a relatively open scoring profile, with BTTS and over-goals angles recurring across models; if team news confirms a stronger Molde attack or a weakened Kristiansund defence, consensus on the contract could move quickly even if the market is currently priced at zero.[1][3][15]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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