Aberdeen FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Aberdeen hosting Heart of Midlothian in the Scottish Premiership is being priced by the crowd at **0% YES**, which is a strikingly hard line for a domestic league fixture and leaves the market far below what the historical match-up alone would suggest. Across recent head-to-head datasets, the pair have been closely matched: FootyStats shows Aberdeen with 17 wins, Hearts with 15, and 10 draws in the previous 42 meetings, while other aggregators put Hearts marginally ahead over a longer sample, including 31 Hearts wins, 22 Aberdeen wins and 20 draws since 2003[2][1]. That kind of record usually supports a much more balanced pricing environment than a zero-implied contract, so the current crowd figure looks more extreme than the underlying rivalry data.

For traders, the main catalysts are the late team-news items that can move a football market most quickly: confirmed starting XIs, any injury or suspension announcements, and whether either side rotates heavily with fixture congestion. Aberdeen and Hearts also tend to produce relatively tight scorelines, with recent H2H records including several one-goal games and multiple draws, which matters if this “More Markets” contract depends on a specific outcome rather than a simple match result[3][12]. If sportsbook prices are available closer to kick-off, they are the best cross-check here: any divergence between bookmaker totals, Asian handicap, or draw lines and the prediction-market zero price would indicate whether the crowd is reacting to a market-specific rule set rather than football fundamentals.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Aberdeen FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.