St Johnstone FC vs. Kilmarnock FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

St Johnstone and Kilmarnock meet in the Scottish Premiership, but the **“More Markets”** contract is currently pricing at **0% YES**, which implies the crowd sees no realistic chance that the specified auxiliary market will resolve positively unless a very specific secondary condition is met. That is notably stricter than the match itself: historical head-to-head data are broadly balanced over the long run, with St Johnstone holding a narrow edge in older aggregate records, while more recent meetings have tilted towards Kilmarnock, including four St Johnstone defeats in the last six league clashes and clean-sheet wins for Kilmarnock in both of the last two league meetings.[1][6][15]

For traders, the key catalyst is not the fixture alone but the exact definition of the “more markets” prompt, because these contracts can hinge on whether there is sufficient liquidity, whether the underlying game starts on time, or whether a linked market is offered and graded in the expected way. On football form, Kilmarnock enter with the stronger recent profile in the available feeds, while St Johnstone’s pre-season and cup results are mixed across sources, which is consistent with a market that may stay illiquid rather than repriced sharply unless team news or market specification changes.[2][11][16] Sky Sports’ pre-match stats also show a relatively low-event profile in the most recent comparable meeting, with only 17 combined shots and two shots on target apiece, a setup that tends to mute expectations for derivative or “more markets” activity unless the sportsbook board widens on the day.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track St Johnstone FC vs. Kilmarnock FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.