IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

The Allsvenskan fixture between IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius at Borås Arena on 19 July has already concluded as a 0–0 draw, yet the prediction market for “More Markets” remains open with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome. This zero pricing reflects the finality of the real-world result, where neither side scored, rendering most secondary markets—such as both teams to score or over 2.5 goals—effectively void.

Historically, when a match ends goalless in the Allsvenskan, secondary markets tied to scoring activity collapse to near-zero implied probabilities across both sportsbooks and prediction platforms. In the April 2025 encounter between these sides, which ended 4–3, odds for over 2.5 goals were heavily favoured, but the current 0–0 outcome aligns with a rare defensive stalemate that has previously driven similar contracts to 0% settlement likelihoods[1][9].

Traders should monitor official settlement confirmations from the market operator, as the 0–0 result is already recorded by ESPN and 365scores, confirming no further goals were added post-match[3][9]. With the settlement window closing on 19 July at 14:30 UTC and the game already finished, no new catalysts—such as late announcements or schedule changes—will alter the outcome[2]. The divergence is stark: while pre-match models favoured IK Sirius with a 59% away-win probability, the actual result negates all scoring-based derivatives[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.