Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qairat FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| Qairat FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Levski Sofia are meeting Kairat in a UEFA Champions League qualifying tie in Sofia, with the match listed for 4 August at 1:30 PM ET and the contract covering any additional markets around that game. The market’s **0% YES** reading is notably lower than the pre-match shape suggested by football data sites: both sides were priced as close to even in recent form-based previews, while live stat feeds showed a cagey, low-event contest rather than a one-sided fixture.[9][14][15]
Historically, this looks like the kind of qualifier where market participants get little help from head-to-head precedent. Some databases list a four-match historical record with Levski unbeaten at home against Kairat, while other preview pages say there was no prior competitive meeting, which underlines how thin the evidence base is for this pairing.[4][13] The statistical profile is also mixed: FootyStats shows Kairat with stronger away scoring numbers and Levski with slightly better possession and home draw rates, but neither side projects as a heavy goals team, which usually pushes “more markets” into narrower ranges rather than broad scoring assumptions.[1]
Traders should watch team news, because qualifying ties can swing sharply on rotation, late injuries, and whether either side protects the first leg with a conservative set-up. Sky Sports and Sporting Life both listed the fixture at Georgi Asparuhov Stadium and showed pre-kickoff form indicators, but the current in-game feeds suggest a low shot count and limited chance creation, which is the main catalyst for revising any derived sub-markets tied to goals, corners, cards, or both-teams-to-score angles.[8][9][15] ESPN’s live match page also shows the game in progress, so settlement-relevant pricing can move on events already reflected in the scoreline and time remaining.[15]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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