UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Allan Nascimento faces Mitch Raposo in a flyweight prelim that is priced very differently across markets: the sportsbook line has Nascimento as a clear favourite at about **-180** with Raposo around **+145**, while the prediction market here is showing **0% YES**, which is an extreme outlier against the betting and preview consensus.[2][1][9] That gap matters because both mainstream previews still lean Nascimento, with one calling him a submission threat and another noting Raposo’s boxing and speed as the main path to an upset.[1][2]

The historical frame is fairly standard for low-odds UFC prelims: when one fighter is a grappling specialist and the other is a volume boxer, the market usually swings around wrestling control, submission risk, and whether the bout reaches the scorecards. Nascimento is described as riding a four-fight win streak and being favoured on the moneyline, while Raposo is coming off a bounce-back win and has been credited with landing more takedowns per 15 minutes, which helps explain why some analysts see a decision upset as plausible even if it is not the base case.[2][4] For traders, the key catalysts are official UFC bout status, weigh-in results, and any late card reshuffles that could affect whether the fight happens on time; the market only resolves to 50-50 if the bout is cancelled, not scored, or pushed beyond the deadline, so the live risk is less about stylistic variance than about final fight confirmation.[6][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.