UFC Fight Night: Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthony Wint is set to meet Terrance Chatman in a heavyweight prelim at UFC Fight Night on 22 August 2026, with the market already pricing Wint as a strong favourite. The crowd-implied probability at 88% YES sits broadly in line with sportsbook pricing, where Wint has been listed around -950 to -1,100, and with outside models that have Wint close to the high-80s in win probability.[1][2][4]

That is a meaningful gap to the lower-end analytical view, though: one model had Wint nearer 55%, while another market feed showed a much tighter split before the fight week money came in.[2][3] For a contract like this, the key comparison is not the headline favourite status but whether the market is over- or under-shooting the vig-free consensus, which recent odds boards place closer to the low-90s for Wint than to anything near a pick’em.[4][5]

The main catalysts are simple and binary: official UFC confirmation of the result, plus whether the bout is actually fought on schedule. DraftKings previewed the fight as an early card opener and one report said it was expected to begin at about 8:10 p.m. ET, but any cancellation, no-contest, or postponement beyond 5 September would force the 50-50 outcome instead.[8][10] The settlement window ends at 03:59:59.999Z on 23 August, so traders will be watching for the official UFC result rather than late market chatter.[10][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman (Heavyweight, Prelims) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.