UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Steven Asplund’s heavyweight bout with Guilherme Pat is a scheduled UFC Fight Night main-card fight, and the market’s **100% YES** price is far more extreme than the surrounding fight line, which is nowhere near a true lock. MMA Index shows both men with low-volume finishing profiles, while UFCStats lists Asplund at 7-2-0 and Pat at 6-1-0, with Asplund’s average fight time notably shorter at 8:02 versus Pat’s 15:00[2][15]. That combination matters because heavyweight markets can look one-sided on paper yet still carry meaningful variance, especially when the available models disagree on whether the bout is a clear favourite spot or a close contest. Combat Edge’s Elo view is effectively even, while UFCCalendar’s model gives Asplund only a modest edge; by contrast, the betting market is much firmer, with average sportsbook pricing around Asplund -290 and Pat +242[4][8].

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the fight proceeds exactly as scheduled and is officially scored by the UFC, because any cancellation, postponement beyond the market’s cut-off, or no contest would flip the contract to 50-50 rather than a fighter win[1]. Recent fight listings and odds pages indicate the matchup is still being treated as active, but the main thing to watch is the official UFC result after the event, not social-media chatter or highlight posts[1][3][10]. The cross-platform read is clear: sportsbooks and preview models lean to Asplund, but not to anything close to a certainty, so a 100% prediction-market implied probability implies either stale pricing or a contract that has already effectively been resolved in the market’s view[4][8][17].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.