UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Yuneisy Duben, a Cuban flyweight competing in the UFC's preliminary card, faces Jeisla Chaves on 6 June 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim. The bout is scheduled for the undercard and will be scored under standard mixed martial arts rules. Official UFC records will determine the winner, with the settlement window closing shortly after the event concludes.

The 0% implied probability currently reflected in this market diverges sharply from typical sportsbook treatment of preliminary-card matchups, where both fighters usually carry meaningful odds. Preliminary bouts historically attract less liquidity and sharper line movement than main-card fights, yet major sportsbooks typically assign 40–60% ranges to either competitor depending on available fight data. The absence of any YES probability here suggests either minimal market participation or a technical artefact of the prediction platform's pricing mechanism rather than genuine consensus that Duben cannot win.

Traders monitoring this contract should track UFC official announcements regarding fighter withdrawals, weight-cut complications, or schedule adjustments—any of which could trigger a No Contest resolution before 20 June 2026. Recent UFC preliminary-card cancellations have occurred within 48 hours of scheduled events due to injury or failed medical clearance. Confirmation of both fighters' weigh-in success and medical clearance typically arrives 24 hours before fight time. The settlement window's tight closure (03:59:59 UTC on 7 June) leaves minimal buffer for delayed official scoring or administrative review, making timely UFC confirmation critical for resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.