Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 60% |
| Map 1 Winner | 55% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 55% |
| Map 3 Winner | 52% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 49% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 4 Winner | 48% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 47% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 40% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 39% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 38% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 35% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 31% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 15% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: karmine corp vs team liquid (bo5) - vct emea playoffs stands at 73% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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