Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs MIBR LOS (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-9.5) vs MIBR LOS (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-8.5) vs MIBR LOS (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-10.5) vs MIBR LOS (+10.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: mibr los vs team heretics (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between MIBR LOS and Team Heretics in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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