Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell | 0% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, itf brisbane: matisse bobichon vs benjamin o'connell stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Matisse Bobichon and Benjamin O'connell in the ITF Men Brisbane, originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market w…
Methodology
We track ITF Brisbane: Matisse Bobichon vs Benjamin O'connell across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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