Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Boston and Kansas City have already played this MLB meeting, and the contract now sits on the settlement mechanics rather than the sporting contest itself. The crowd-implied probability is 0% YES, which aligns with the fact that the game outcome has been decided and the market is effectively awaiting official recognition of the final result. On comparable baseball contracts, a near-zero price usually reflects either a resolved result or a stale listing after the event, not a live view that one side has no chance. In this case, the comparison with sportsbook-style listings is stark: a standard book would typically show a settled winner price after the final, while the prediction market remains open only because the contract language allows for postponement, cancellation, or a tie-related 50-50 resolution.

For traders, the key catalyst is the official final statistics and any league confirmation that the game was completed as scheduled, since that determines whether the market resolves to Boston, Kansas City, or a split outcome. The current window to resolution runs to 2026-05-26T23:40:00Z, so any delayed scoring correction or administrative note would matter only if it changed the recognised result before settlement. Recent game coverage indicates Boston won 3-1 in Kansas City, which is consistent with the market’s zero-priced YES side and with analyst consensus being effectively aligned with a Red Sox win rather than a live uncertainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.