Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park, with the market settling on the outright winner after the game is completed. The current crowd-implied price of 39% for Cleveland sits well below ESPN’s matchup model, which lists the Guardians at 60.7% and the Phillies at 39.3%, a notable split between the market and a data-driven pre-game projection. That gap suggests the contract is pricing in more than simple team quality, likely weighting venue and recent availability updates more heavily than the headline record.

Historically, this pairing has been fairly competitive rather than one-sided. ESPN lists Cleveland at 30-22 and Philadelphia at 25-25, while recent head-to-head results have swung both ways; last season’s series ended with a Guardians shut-out win, but the Phillies also took earlier games in the set. In comparable spots where the away side has the better record yet the home team starts as a live underdog, prediction markets have often sat below model probabilities until line-up confirmation narrows the range. That makes the 39% figure easier to read as a cautionary home-centred price than as a firm verdict on Cleveland’s chances.

Traders should watch line-ups, starting pitcher announcements and any late scratches, because those are the main inputs likely to move both sportsbook numbers and the contract before first pitch. The game is scheduled for 6:40pm ET on 22 May, so the most important dependency is whether either club confirms a strong starter or rests regulars in a travel or scheduling spot. Recent coverage on MLB.com noted the Guardians had already split opinion in a series loss to Philadelphia’s NL rivals, while the live matchup page from ESPN gives the pre-game comparison that is currently running ahead of the market.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.