New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets travel to Miami on 24 May for a regular-season matchup against the Marlins, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM Eastern Time. The prediction market currently prices a Mets victory at 31 per cent, implying roughly 69 per cent probability for a Marlins win. This represents a notable divergence from typical sportsbook consensus, where the Mets—despite their recent struggles—generally command favourites' odds in road games against Miami. The gap between prediction-market pricing and conventional betting lines warrants scrutiny, particularly given the Marlins' inconsistent performance record against comparable opponents.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Mets have won approximately 55 per cent of meetings over the past five seasons, though home-field advantage for Miami has narrowed that margin considerably. The current 31 per cent pricing for a Mets win sits below their baseline win probability, suggesting the market is factoring in specific recent form or roster considerations beyond seasonal averages. Comparable prediction markets on similar inter-divisional contests typically reflect sportsbook lines more closely, making this contract's positioning an outlier worth monitoring.

Traders should track starting pitcher announcements, expected within 48 hours of the fixture, as pitching matchups historically shift these markets by 3–5 percentage points. Recent injury reports from both rosters and any roster moves announced before 24 May will also influence positioning. The settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing time for postponements or make-up scheduling should weather intervene.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.