Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Toronto Blue Jays on 22 May, with the market currently pricing a Pirates win at 41% YES. That sits below the ESPN-listed moneyline of Toronto -168, which implies the Blue Jays are a clear favourite, and it is broadly in line with a market that sees Toronto as stronger on paper rather than in head-to-head history. Toronto have won 7 of the last 10 meetings with Pittsburgh, and the longer-run series data from AiScore also favours the Blue Jays. The market is therefore leaning against the Pirates despite the home setting, and a 41% YES price is consistent with an underdog profile rather than a coin-flip game.

Recent form and context matter because these teams have not played to identical standards this season. ESPN’s game page shows Toronto entering with a better batting line than Pittsburgh, while also carrying a stronger on-base and slugging profile. The Blue Jays also have some recent momentum in this matchup: MLB’s official video page showed George Springer homering in Toronto’s 21 May win, following the 2025 result where Pittsburgh took a 5-2 home victory behind Paul Skenes. For traders, the main variables are the confirmed starters, any late line-up scratches, and whether the moneyline moves off the current Toronto favourite position before first pitch. If the Pirates’ price shortens materially, that would be the clearest sign the market is re-rating their chances ahead of the game.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.