St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds in a one-off divisional game, with the contract sitting at 48% for a Cardinals win. That is close to a pure coin flip and broadly consistent with a low-spread MLB matchup rather than a strongly one-sided price. Recent head-to-head results have swung both ways: the Reds beat St. Louis 3-1 on 28 April 2025, while the Cardinals blanked Cincinnati 5-0 in a later meeting, and the clubs have also split stretches where run prevention, not offence, has decided the game.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any late line-up rests, and whether either club is managing bullpen usage after recent close games. A recent Cardinals-Reds recap from MLB highlighted how one side can win simply by stringing together timely contact and avoiding defensive mistakes, which matters in a market this tight. With the contract still near 50-50, the key comparison is likely to be between sportsbook moneyline movement and the market’s relatively modest Cardinals lean; any late injury or line-up news could move the implied probability more than the historical record.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.