Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 81% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| O/U 8.5 | 55% |
| NRFI | 52% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | 49% |
| O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 7% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, tampa bay rays vs. boston red sox stands at 81% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for July 17 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $190K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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