Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
40% | 60% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
40% | 60% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| NRFI | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
Market context
The Washington Nationals travel to Atlanta for a regular-season matchup against the Braves on 23 May, with first pitch scheduled for 4:10 PM ET. The settlement window extends to 30 May, allowing for postponements or rescheduling within that five-day window. The 40% implied probability for a Nationals victory reflects modest confidence in the visiting team, though this figure merits comparison against conventional sportsbook pricing and consensus forecasts from baseball analytics platforms.
Historical matchups between these NL East rivals show competitive balance, though the Braves have maintained stronger regular-season records in recent campaigns. The Nationals' 40% implied probability sits notably lower than their typical win expectation in neutral-site games, suggesting either meaningful disadvantage from travel, pitching availability, or recent form. Comparable cross-divisional road games in May typically see visiting teams priced between 42–48% at major sportsbooks, indicating the prediction market may be pricing in additional friction for Washington.
Key variables affecting settlement include starting pitcher assignments, which remain subject to change through injury or roster decisions. Atlanta's home-field advantage at Truist Park carries documented significance in May matchups, where the Braves have historically performed above .500. Recent roster moves, bullpen availability, and weather conditions on game day could shift expectations materially. Traders should monitor official MLB injury reports and team announcements through the settlement window, as any late scratches or roster adjustments could justify repricing relative to the current 40% figure.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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